PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Why 12-team College Football Playoff is blessing, curse for Tennessee, Florida, LSU

Whether the expanded College Football Playoff comes as a blessing or PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centera curse depends on which side of the break you’re on and what your rivals are up to.

It’s a grand development for a team like Penn State, which has finished inside the top 12 of the final playoff rankings six times in the past eight years but never qualified for a four-team playoff.

But, what about for a program like Florida? The Gators would’ve made a 12-team playoff in each of Dan Mullen’s first three seasons. The past three seasons, though, the Gators would’ve have been close to anything short of a 60-team playoff.

Meanwhile, Florida’s rivals would’ve marched into an expanded playoff one by one. It’s nauseating enough for Gators fans to stomach all that Dawg barking after Georgia won consecutive national championships. Now, imagine the feeling in Florida of seeing not only Georgia but also Tennessee making the 2022 playoff, or Georgia and Florida State piling into the playoff last season.

Now consider this season, when Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and FSU profile as a playoff hopeful, while the Gators are positioned for more mediocrity. Billy Napier serving a Mayo Bowl appearance Year 3 while four rivals piled into the playoff would come as some kind of sad consolation, indeed.

In the four-team playoff era, if your team plays for mayonnaise while your rival plays in the Citrus Bowl, a fan fluent in mental gymnastics can convince himself that’s about equivalent. That logic doesn’t hold, though, if your rivals take over the first round of the 12-team playoff. No one wants to see their coach slathered in a gross sandwich condiment while several rivals play for the big kids’ prize.

Are Gators fans really supposed to chant "S-E-C! S-E-C!" while Georgia and Tennessee play in a playoff quarterfinal?

This possibility is not unique to Florida.

Since Tennessee won its last national title, rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia each won multiple national championships throughout the BCS and four-team playoff eras while the Vols cycled through coaches who ranged from losers to brick masons to cheating losers. A maddening decade-plus for Tennessee, it was, before Josh Heupel’s arrival.

Watching Mullen’s Gators claim a few playoff bids would’ve been gasoline to Tennessee’s mattress fire.

Maybe, in this instance, it’s better to have fewer rivals than Florida or Tennessee – or at least weaker rivals. Missouri left its rivals behind when it left the Big 12. So what if Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss make the playoff while Mizzou heads to a Florida bowl game? The Tigers still can enjoy the reprieve from the snow with the comfort that Kansas won’t make the playoff either.

Lording superiority over the Jayhawks wouldn’t be a salve for LSU fans. Consider this possibility: LSU narrowly misses the playoff in Brian Kelly’s third season, while Alabama qualifies in Kalen DeBoer’s first season and the Lane Train powers Ole Miss into the first round, as well.

In a four-team playoff, there wouldn’t be room for Alabama and Ole Miss. There might not be room for either this season. With 12 qualifiers, ample room exists for both.

Of course, it also increases the possibility that Kelly’s Tigers will qualify.

So, I reiterate: 12-team playoff, blessing or curse?

“More spots in the playoff creates opportunity,” Kelly told me last month in response to that question.

It’s an opportunity, sure.

It’s an opportunity to either make the playoff, or be relegated to an even more irrelevant bowl game, while rivals revel at the real party.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Follow him on X @btoppmeyer.